Market Update: Summer 2025

The Outlier Group
Aug 8
3 min read

Florida CRE Mid-Year Snapshot

Florida’s commercial real estate markets continue to outperform national trends in 2025, driven by strong population growth, corporate relocations, and a favorable tax climate. From Orlando’s steady office absorption to Tampa’s surging retail activity and Miami’s record-setting office rents, each metro is seeing healthy demand across office, retail, and medical sectors. Recent legislation eliminating the state sales tax on commercial leases, effective October 1, is poised to further boost leasing activity and investment statewide. The following market highlights outline key trends shaping Florida’s three major metros this quarter.

Orlando Update

Office: Orlando’s office market remains steady with an average asking rent of $27.87/sf and an overall vacancy rate hovering at 17%. Class B spaces are leading activity, capturing 74% of new leases this quarter, while the city’s unemployment dropped to 3.4%, signaling continued office demand[1][2]. Average office sale rates have shown incremental growth, and absorption is expected to turn positive with a few major tenant move-ins on the horizon.

Retail: Orlando’s retail sector maintains healthy deal flow, with 490 retail property sales over the past year at an average price of $301/sf and cap rates averaging 6.3%. Vacancy at sale is 8.1%, reflecting a balanced environment for landlords and tenants. Both private and institutional buyers are active, and rental rates continue to track upward alongside a robust local economy and strong population trends[3].

Medical: Orlando’s medical office market is experiencing moderate rent increases and stable demand. Average market rent for medical office space stands around $24/sf with vacancy rates in the high single digits, reflecting a resilient sector buoyed by population growth and healthcare expansion in Central Florida[4].

Tampa Update

Office: Tampa’s office market is showing resilience and segmentation between premium and older inventory. Class A asking rents average $31.68/sf, with top submarkets like Downtown and Westshore seeing some of the lowest vacancy rates in years—around 13.8%. Major transactions are pushing positive net absorption, and new projects are moving forward, especially for medical and mixed-use. Medical office space continues to outperform traditional offices with lower vacancy and strong pre-leasing[5][6][7].

Retail: Tampa continues to rank among the top Florida markets for retail rent growth, with Q1 2025 sales volume jumping 34% year-over-year. Retail occupancy and sale rates are at multi-year highs, supported by robust population growth and a thriving consumer base.

Medical: The medical office sector leads with lower vacancy and consistently strong demand. New projects are in the pipeline, and premium assets command a rental premium, solidifying healthcare as a stable anchor for CRE investment in Tampa[6].

Miami Update

Office: Miami remains the country’s hottest office market, posting the lowest vacancy of any major U.S. metro at 15.5% and the fastest rise in average asking rent, now $63.02/sf—a 15% jump year-over-year. Class A developments are fully leased at delivery, and continued inflows of financial and tech firms are fueling rent growth and ongoing record-setting absorption[8][9][10]. Major towers like 830 Brickell epitomize Miami’s “flight to quality” trend.

Retail: Retail market activity in Miami is bustling as population growth and high tourism sustain record investment volumes and rental rates, especially in high-street and mixed-use districts. Sales and leasing activity accelerated in early 2025, demonstrating robust investor and retailer appetite[11].

Medical: Miami’s medical office space is in high demand, especially for new, Class A developments, with vacancy rates below the national average and lease rates trending upwards thanks to sustained healthcare sector expansion in South Florida.

#FloridaCRE Market – Recent News

As of July 2025, Florida’s CRE landscape is booming. Population gains, business relocations, and tax advantages are driving record investment and development across the state. A major regulatory shift this summer: Governor DeSantis signed legislation ending the state sales tax on commercial leases effective October 1, 2025, which is expected to lower occupancy costs and increase competition for commercial space statewide [12][13][14]. Mixed-use projects, retail hubs, and office towers are rising from Tampa to Miami, positioning Florida as one of the nation’s most dynamic and opportunity-rich CRE markets.